Panadería Pulido 0–0 Güímar: Result & Stats

Panadería Pulido

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Güímar

10/5/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Panadería Pulido64%

×Draw21%

Güímar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panadería PulidoExpected goals in this matchGüímar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.81

Panadería Pulido

1.93

Güímar

0.81

Panadería Pulido creates 138% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 28 away

1.57

creates per match

0.68

0.93

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Panadería Pulido

1.57

Güímar

0.68

allows per match

Panadería Pulido

0.93

Güímar

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Güímar →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw

85%

Panadería Pulido or Güímar

79%

Draw or Güímar

36%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

38%

Güímar wins by 2+

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

85%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

57%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

30%

Güímar 1+ goals

56%

Güímar 2+ goals

19%

Güímar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

81%

Güímar (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.93

Güímar attack 0.68 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more

64%

level

21%

Güímar scores more

15%

Panadería Pulido at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Panadería Pulido 0–0 Güímar

Panadería Pulido and Güímar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.

Panadería Pulido vs Güímar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Panadería Pulido 0–0 Güímar