Güímar 0–2 Panadería Pulido: Result & Stats

Güímar

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Panadería Pulido

2/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar33%

×Draw25%

Panadería Pulido41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GüímarExpected goals in this matchPanadería Pulido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.50

Güímar

1.32

Panadería Pulido

1.50

Panadería Pulido creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 94 away

1.43

creates per match

1.31

1.68

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Güímar

1.43

Panadería Pulido

1.31

allows per match

Güímar

1.68

Panadería Pulido

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Panadería Pulido →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Güímar or draw

59%

Güímar or Panadería Pulido

75%

Draw or Panadería Pulido

67%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+

15%

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals

73%

Güímar 2+ goals

38%

Güímar 3+ goals

15%

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

78%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

44%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)

45%

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Güímar scores more

33%

level

25%

Panadería Pulido scores more

41%

Panadería Pulido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff