Panadería Pulido 2–1 Guía: Result & Stats

Panadería Pulido

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Guía

Kilian Aleman 14'

Ubay 10'

Joaquín 77'

11/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Panadería Pulido56%

×Draw23%

Guía21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panadería PulidoExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.00

Panadería Pulido

1.82

Guía

1.00

Panadería Pulido creates 82% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 14 away

1.57

creates per match

1.07

0.93

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Panadería Pulido

1.57

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Panadería Pulido

0.93

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Guía →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw

79%

Panadería Pulido or Guía

77%

Draw or Guía

44%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

32%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

84%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

54%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

27%

Guía 1+ goals

63%

Guía 2+ goals

26%

Guía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

73%

Guía (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

Guía attack 1.07 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more

56%

level

23%

Guía scores more

21%

Panadería Pulido at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Ubay

14'

Kilian Aleman

46'

Felipe← Gabri

46'

Joaquín← Omar Díaz

58'

B. Ibarguen← Jurgen

58'

Ubay← Jesús Farías

63'

Javi Martínez← Kilian Aleman

67'

Roberto← Rivero

67'

Iván Morris← Luisja

70'

Oliver Viera← Raul Sosa

70'

Juanma← Ubay

77'

Joaquín

86'

Rubén Silva← Romero

Panadería

Guía

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Aleman

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Socorro

46'▲Felipe←▼Gabri

63'▲Javi Martínez←▼Kilian Aleman

70'▲Oliver Viera←▼Raul Sosa

70'▲Juanma←▼Ubay

86'▲Rubén Silva←▼Romero

Panadería Pulido substitutes

FelipeMartínezVieraJuanmaSilva

Manager: Moisés Díaz

46'▲Joaquín←▼Omar Díaz

58'▲B. Ibarguen←▼Jurgen

58'▲Ubay←▼Jesús Farías

67'▲Roberto←▼Rivero

67'▲Iván Morris←▼Luisja

Guía substitutes

JoaquínIbarguenUbayRobertoMorris

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Panadería Pulido 2–1 Guía

Panadería Pulido beat Guía 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 6, 2020.

Goals: Ubay (10'), Kilian Aleman (14'), Joaquín (77').

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.

Panadería Pulido vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Panadería Pulido 2–1 Guía