Guía 2–2 Panadería Pulido: Result & Stats

Guía

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Panadería Pulido

Cristian 24' (pen), 14'

Gabri 51'

Felipe 47'

3/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía37%

×Draw26%

Panadería Pulido36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchPanadería Pulido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.30

Guía

1.32

Panadería Pulido

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 94 away

1.43

creates per match

1.31

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Panadería Pulido

1.31

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Panadería Pulido

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Panadería Pulido →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guía or draw

64%

Guía or Panadería Pulido

74%

Draw or Panadería Pulido

63%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

17%

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

73%

Guía 2+ goals

38%

Guía 3+ goals

15%

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

73%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

37%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

51%

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guía scores more

37%

level

26%

Panadería Pulido scores more

36%

Guía at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Cristian

24'

CristianPenalty

36'

Braulio López← Castaña

36'

Gabri← Javi Martínez

46'

Pedro← Emilio

47'

51'

52'

56'

56'

Delgado← Luisja

65'

Adonay← Cristian

65'

David← B. Ibarguen

78'

Toba← Nano

83'

Jacobo← Raul Sosa

Guía

Panadería

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Cristian

Martel

Farías

Manager: Iván Mendoza

52'▲Rivero←▼Omar Díaz

56'▲Javi Mejías←▼Melo

56'▲Delgado←▼Luisja

65'▲Adonay←▼Cristian

65'▲David←▼B. Ibarguen

Guía substitutes

RiveroMejíasDelgadoAdonayDavid

Manager: J. Socorro

36'▲Braulio López←▼Castaña

36'▲Gabri←▼Javi Martínez

46'▲Pedro←▼Emilio

78'▲Toba←▼Nano

83'▲Jacobo←▼Raul Sosa

Panadería Pulido substitutes

LópezGabriPedroTobaJacobo