Palmeiras W 1–2 Internacional RS W: Result & Stats

Palmeiras W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional RS W

Gabi Morais 37' (OG)

B. Aquino 69'

Priscila 22'

8/18/2024

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Palmeiras W52%

×Draw22%

Internacional RS W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras WExpected goals in this matchInternacional RS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.29

Palmeiras W

1.94

Internacional RS W

1.29

Palmeiras W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

2.62

creates per match

1.48

1.09

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Palmeiras W

2.62

Internacional RS W

1.48

allows per match

Palmeiras W

1.09

Internacional RS W

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras W ↓

Internacional RS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Palmeiras W or draw

75%

Palmeiras W or Internacional RS W

78%

Draw or Internacional RS W

48%

Winning margin

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

30%

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

86%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

58%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

30%

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

72%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

37%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

67%

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras W at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras W attack 2.62 + Internacional RS W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Palmeiras W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palmeiras W scores more

52%

level

22%

Internacional RS W scores more

25%

Palmeiras W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Priscila

37'

Gabi MoraisOwn goal

46'

Ingryd Lima← Y. Rincón

54'

Fê Palermo← Flávia Mota

68'

68'

69'

72'

76'

Letícia Ferreira← Amanda Gutierres

76'

J. Espinales← Diany Martins

79'

Zóio← Letícia Monteiro

Palmeiras

Internacional

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Camilla Orlando

46'▲Ingryd Lima←▼Y. Rincón

54'▲Fê Palermo←▼Flávia Mota

68'▲Gaby Santos←▼Juliete

76'▲Letícia Ferreira←▼Amanda Gutierres

76'▲J. Espinales←▼Diany Martins

Palmeiras W substitutes

LimaPalermoSantosFerreiraEspinalesDudinhaEskerdinhaLorraneNataschaStefanieLissRodríguez

Manager: Jorge Barcellos

68'▲Marzia←▼Pati Llanos

72'▲Lorranny←▼B. Aquino

79'▲Zóio←▼Letícia Monteiro

Internacional RS W substitutes

MarziaLorrannyZóioCarlaMoralesTainá

Brasileiro Women: Palmeiras W 1–2 Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat Palmeiras W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on August 18, 2024.

Goals: Priscila (22'), Gabi Morais (37' o.g.), B. Aquino (69').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra in Jundiaí, São Paulo.

Palmeiras W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: Palmeiras W 1–2 Internacional RS W