Internacional RS W 1–2 Palmeiras W: Result & Stats

Internacional RS W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Palmeiras W

Tamara 33'

Amanda Gutierres 55'

Bia Zaneratto 21' (pen)

5/6/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Internacional RS W29%

×Draw23%

Palmeiras W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.75

Internacional RS W

1.32

Palmeiras W

1.75

Palmeiras W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 59 away

1.48

creates per match

2.32

1.19

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.48

Palmeiras W

2.32

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.19

Palmeiras W

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Palmeiras W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

53%

Internacional RS W or Palmeiras W

77%

Draw or Palmeiras W

71%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

12%

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

73%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

38%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

15%

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

83%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

52%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

38%

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 64 matches

Palmeiras W away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Palmeiras W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Palmeiras W attack 2.32 + Internacional RS W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

29%

level

23%

Palmeiras W scores more

47%

Palmeiras W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Tauane Zoio

21'

Bia ZanerattoPenalty

23'

30'

33'

46'

48'

Roberta Schroeder

55'

Amanda Gutierres

56'

Juliete← L. Benítez

61'

F. Gauto← Pati Llanos

61'

F. Sandoval← Djeni

67'

Analuyza← Tamara

67'

Laís Estevam← Letícia Moreno

72'

75'

79'

79'

79'

Y. Rodríguez← Amanda Gutierres

85'

Camilinha

90+1'

Bia Zaneratto

Internacional

Palmeiras

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tamara

Priscila

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

46'▲Roberta←▼Tauane Zóio

61'▲F. Gauto←▼Pati Llanos

61'▲F. Sandoval←▼Djeni

67'▲Analuyza←▼Tamara

72'▲Marzia←▼Eskerdinha

Internacional RS W substitutes

RobertaGautoSandovalAnaluyzaMarziaGoedertBikKetlinRibeiroMileninhaTeixeira

Manager: Ricardo Belli

56'▲Juliete←▼L. Benítez

67'▲Laís Estevam←▼Letícia Moreno

79'▲Flávia Mota←▼Sorriso

79'▲Y. Rodríguez←▼Amanda Gutierres

Palmeiras W substitutes

JulieteEstevamMotaRodríguezBobadillaAndressinhaDudinhaPryscilaKaíssa