Palmeiras 1–0 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Palmeiras

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gremio

Estêvão 73'

11/9/2024

Serie A · Round 33Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Palmeiras57%

×Draw24%

Gremio19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmeirasExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.86

Palmeiras

1.68

Gremio

0.86

Palmeiras creates 95% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

1.58

creates per match

1.02

0.70

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Palmeiras

1.58

Gremio

1.02

allows per match

Palmeiras

0.70

Gremio

1.77

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Palmeiras+0.10scores more

Gremio-0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw

81%

Palmeiras or Gremio

76%

Draw or Gremio

43%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+

31%

Gremio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals

81%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

50%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

24%

Gremio 1+ goals

58%

Gremio 2+ goals

21%

Gremio 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

75%

Gremio (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 22 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 1.58 + Gremio defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Gremio attack 1.02 + Palmeiras defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Palmeiras scores more

57%

level

24%

Gremio scores more

19%

Palmeiras at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Marchesín

Gremio · G

10.0

Match Events

17'

27'

30'

32'

63'

Dudu← Felipe Anderson

63'

Mayke← Caio Paulista

63'

J. López← Rony

64'

Pepê← Y. Soteldo

64'

Nathan Fernandes← Edenílson

73'

Estêvão

74'

Estevao

75'

M. Monsalve← Dodi

75'

Diego Costa← M. Braithwaite

75'

F. Cristaldo← A. Aravena

77'

R. Rios← Maurício

82'

Zé Rafael← Raphael Veiga

87'

R. Rios

88'

Mayke

90+3'

M. Monsalve

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalmeirasGremio

Overview

63%Possession37%

33Total Shots6

2.51Expected Goals (xG)0.72

14Corners1

14Fouls9

Shots

33Total Shots6

14On Target1

11Off Target2

8Blocked3

17Inside Box5

16Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

443Total Passes280

351Accurate Passes187

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves14

2.34Goals Prevented2.34

Discipline

14Fouls9

5Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3