Gremio 2–2 Palmeiras: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Palmeiras

F. Cristaldo 70' (pen)

C. Pavón 2'

Estêvão 77'

J. López 74'

7/4/2024

Serie A · Round 14Estádio Francisco Stédile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Gremio40%

×Draw26%

Palmeiras34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Gremio

1.38

Palmeiras

1.25

Gremio creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

1.30

1.20

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Gremio

1.61

Palmeiras

1.30

allows per match

Gremio

1.20

Palmeiras

1.14

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.10scores more

Palmeiras+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

66%

Gremio or Palmeiras

74%

Draw or Palmeiras

60%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

19%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

75%

Gremio 2+ goals

40%

Gremio 3+ goals

16%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

71%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

36%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

54%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.61 + Palmeiras defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Palmeiras attack 1.30 + Gremio defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gremio scores more

40%

level

26%

Palmeiras scores more

34%

Gremio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Cristaldo

Gremio · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

C. Pavón↳ Gustavo Nunes

37'

Vitor Reis

41'

Kaiky Naves

46'

Mayke← Fabinho

54'

Aníbal Moreno

54'

Vanderlan← Kaiky Naves

59'

Everton Galdino← Edenílson

69'

Dudu← Marcos Rocha

70'

F. CristaldoPenalty

71'

Rodrigo Ely

73'

João Pedro← C. Pavón

74'

Rodrigo Caio← F. Cristaldo

74'

Natã← Rodrigo Ely

74'

J. López

77'

Estêvão↳ Jhon Jhon

81'

Nathan Fernandes← Gustavo Nunes

82'

Natã

88'

Caio Paulista← Estêvão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioPalmeiras

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots21

2.20Expected Goals (xG)2.35

5Corners10

9Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots21

5On Target5

4Off Target9

5Blocked7

10Inside Box12

4Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

297Total Passes426

215Accurate Passes357

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.09Goals Prevented-0.09

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3