Palmeiras vs Fortaleza EC — Serie A 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Palmeiras62%
Fortaleza EC16%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Palmeiras creates 129% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Palmeiras ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Palmeiras at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches
Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Palmeiras attack 1.67 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90
Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + Palmeiras defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Palmeiras at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
BotafogoPalmeiras
FlamengoFortaleza EC
Internacional
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
Gremio
Juventude
RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
Criciuma
Atletico Goianiense
CuiabaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Palmeiras host Fortaleza EC on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 19:30. The match is part of the Serie A 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Palmeiras vs Fortaleza EC
Palmeiras and Fortaleza EC drew 2-2 in Serie A on October 26, 2024.
Goals: Raphael Veiga (29' pen), Hércules (38'), Estêvão (57' pen), Moisés (62').
Palmeiras controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 11.
The match was played at Allianz Parque in São Paulo, São Paulo.