Fortaleza EC 1–2 Palmeiras: Result & Stats

Fortaleza EC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras

Deyverson 71'

J. Lopez 58'

F. Torres 45'

4/20/2025

Serie A · Round 5Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Fortaleza EC41%

×Draw27%

Palmeiras32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Fortaleza EC

1.33

Palmeiras

1.15

Fortaleza EC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

1.47

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.47

Palmeiras

1.30

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.00

Palmeiras

1.20

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.20scores more

Palmeiras+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

68%

Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras

73%

Draw or Palmeiras

59%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

19%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

74%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

38%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

15%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

68%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

32%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

56%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.47 + Palmeiras defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Palmeiras attack 1.30 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

41%

level

27%

Palmeiras scores more

32%

Fortaleza EC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

J. Lopez

Palmeiras · F

7.5

Match Events

29'

Allanzinho

45'

F. Torres

58'

J. Lopez↳ Estevao

66'

Tinga← David Luiz

66'

J. Lucero← Yago Pikachu

71'

Deyverson↳ Allanzinho

72'

Vitor Roque← J. Lopez

72'

Mauricio← Felipe Anderson

72'

Naves← Estêvão

76'

Diogo Barbosa← E. Mancuso

76'

Lucca Prior← Calebe

77'

Allan← F. Torres

81'

Richard Ríos

81'

K. Andrade← Allanzinho

81'

A. Moreno← R. Rios

90+1'

DeyversonPenalty confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaPalmeiras

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots6

1.20Expected Goals (xG)1.00

8Corners2

12Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target4

6Off Target1

1Blocked1

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

374Total Passes361

312Accurate Passes289

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.28Goals Prevented0.28

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4

Serie A: Fortaleza EC 1–2 Palmeiras

Palmeiras beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 in Serie A on April 20, 2025.

Goals: F. Torres (45'), J. Lopez (58'), Deyverson (71').

Fortaleza EC controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.

Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras — Serie A 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fortaleza EC 1–2 Palmeiras