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Palmeiras vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Palmeiras
Palmeiras
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
Danilo 74'
5/18/2022CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Palmeiras57%
×Draw24%
Emelec19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras
1.74
Emelec
0.89

Palmeiras creates 96% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 6 away

creates per match

Palmeiras
2.64
Emelec
1.17

allows per match

Palmeiras
0.60
Emelec
0.83

finishing

Palmeiras+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw
81%
Palmeiras or Emelec
76%
Draw or Emelec
43%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+
32%
Emelec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals
82%
Palmeiras 2+ goals
52%
Palmeiras 3+ goals
25%
Emelec 1+ goals
59%
Emelec 2+ goals
22%
Emelec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)
75%
Emelec (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 2.64 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

Emelec attack 1.17 + Palmeiras defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Palmeiras scores more
57%
level
24%
Emelec scores more
19%

Palmeiras at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
DaniloPalmeirasPalmeiras · M
8.2

Match Events

46'
Bryan Carabalí
53'
Jackson Rodríguez
56'
Pedro Ortiz
62'
Á. Gracia← E. Lastre
66'
Raphael Veiga← E. Atuesta
66'
Vanderlan← Jorge
66'
Dudu← Gustavo Scarpa
74'
Danilo↳ Rafael Navarro
76'
Zé Rafael← Gabriel Menino
79'
J. Chalá← B. Carabalí
81'
Breno Lopes← Rony
84'
M. Quiroga← A. Cabeza

Possession

63%Palmeiras

Shots

22Palmeiras

Pass accuracy

53%Palmeiras

Statistics

PalmeirasEmelec
Overview
63%Possession37%
22Total Shots7
15Corners2
12Fouls7
Shots
22Total Shots7
7On Target1
11Off Target4
4Blocked2
14Inside Box3
8Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
497Total Passes298
385Accurate Passes200
77%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls7
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Palmeiras 1–0 Emelec

Palmeiras beat Emelec 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 18, 2022.

Goals: Danilo (74').

Palmeiras controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Allianz Parque in São Paulo, São Paulo.