Emelec 1–3 Palmeiras: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Palmeiras

J. Rojas 62'

Breno Lopes 90+2'

Gabriel Veron 25'

Rony 19'

4/28/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec35%

×Draw25%

Palmeiras40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.51

Emelec

1.40

Palmeiras

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 42 away

2.00

creates per match

2.02

1.00

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Emelec

2.00

Palmeiras

2.02

allows per match

Emelec

1.00

Palmeiras

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Palmeiras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

60%

Emelec or Palmeiras

75%

Draw or Palmeiras

65%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

16%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

75%

Emelec 2+ goals

41%

Emelec 3+ goals

17%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

78%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

44%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

47%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 2.00 + Palmeiras defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Palmeiras attack 2.02 + Emelec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Emelec scores more

35%

level

25%

Palmeiras scores more

40%

Palmeiras at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Gabriel Veron

Palmeiras · F

7.6

Match Events

19'

Rony↳ Wesley

25'

Gabriel Veron↳ Danilo

28'

J. Quintero← A. Leguizamón

34'

J. Quintero

51'

E. Guevara

57'

Wesley

62'

J. Rojas↳ J. Cevallos

69'

A. Zapata

77'

R. Caicedo← S. Rodríguez

78'

Breno Lopes← Gabriel Veron

79'

Rafael Navarro← Rony

81'

D. Arroyo

81'

Gustavo Scarpa

83'

Jorge← Wesley

83'

Gabriel Menino← Gustavo Scarpa

87'

B. Wittle← J. Cevallos

90'

Fabinho← E. Atuesta

90+2'

Breno Lopes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecPalmeiras

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots13

11Corners1

10Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target7

8Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

461Total Passes369

365Accurate Passes268

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

5Offsides4