Palmeiras 3–2 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats | Serie A

Palmeiras

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico-MG

Mauricio 77'

J. Alonso 51' (OG)

Lucas Evangelista 33'

Hulk 90', 42'

7/20/2025

Serie A · Round 15Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Palmeiras52%

×Draw26%

Atletico-MG21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmeirasExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.84

Palmeiras

1.49

Atletico-MG

0.84

Palmeiras creates 77% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.67

creates per match

0.98

0.70

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Palmeiras

1.67

Atletico-MG

0.98

allows per match

Palmeiras

0.70

Atletico-MG

1.31

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Palmeiras+0.03on par

Atletico-MG-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw

79%

Palmeiras or Atletico-MG

74%

Draw or Atletico-MG

48%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+

27%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals

77%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

44%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

19%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

57%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

21%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

71%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 1.67 + Atletico-MG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Atletico-MG attack 0.98 + Palmeiras defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palmeiras scores more

52%

level

26%

Atletico-MG scores more

21%

Palmeiras at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Hulk

Atletico-MG · F

8.2

Match Events

9'

Gabriel Menino

32'

Romulus← Gabriel Menino

33'

Lucas Evangelista↳ J. Piquerez

35'

41'

42'

44'

51'

J. AlonsoOwn goal

58'

Caio Paulista← Guilherme Arana

58'

Junior Santos← Gustavo Scarpa

63'

R. Sosa← Felipe Anderson

65'

Bruno Fuchs

69'

Bernard← Igor Gomes

70'

Renzo Saravia← Natanael

77'

Mauricio↳ F. Torres

81'

Luighi← Vitor Roque

81'

Allan← Mauricio

82'

E. Martinez← A. Moreno

85'

Raphael Veiga← F. Torres

90+8'

Hulk

90'

Hulk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalmeirasAtletico-MG

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots6

2.17Expected Goals (xG)0.33

9Corners0

22Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots6

7On Target3

5Off Target3

6Blocked0

7Inside Box0

11Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

396Total Passes297

327Accurate Passes228

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76

Discipline

22Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0