Atletico-MG 0–3 Palmeiras: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atletico-MG

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Palmeiras

Luighi 81'

Allan 20'

J. Lopez 9'

12/4/2025

Serie A · Round 34MRV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Atletico-MG38%

×Draw27%

Palmeiras35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

Atletico-MG

1.29

Palmeiras

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

1.37

creates per match

1.29

1.17

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.37

Palmeiras

1.29

allows per match

Atletico-MG

1.17

Palmeiras

1.22

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.30scores more

Palmeiras+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

65%

Atletico-MG or Palmeiras

73%

Draw or Palmeiras

62%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

17%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

72%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

37%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

14%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

71%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

35%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

52%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.37 + Palmeiras defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Palmeiras attack 1.29 + Atletico-MG defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

38%

level

27%

Palmeiras scores more

35%

Atletico-MG at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Carlos Miguel

Palmeiras · G

8.5

Match Events

9'

20'

31'

33'

34'

45'

46'

46'

Jefte← J. Lopez

46'

R. Sosa← Raphael Veiga

64'

Hulk← Renzo Saravia

65'

Carlos Miguel

74'

Benedetti← E. Martinez

75'

RonyGoal Disallowed - handball

81'

Luighi← Vitor Roque

81'

Luighi↳ Jefte

88'

Gabriel Menino← Gustavo Scarpa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGPalmeiras

Overview

65%Possession35%

33Total Shots12

1.84Expected Goals (xG)1.99

10Corners6

16Fouls15

Shots

33Total Shots12

9On Target5

14Off Target5

10Blocked2

18Inside Box12

15Outside Box0

Passing

65%Possession35%

449Total Passes237

393Accurate Passes176

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

1.81Goals Prevented1.81

Discipline

16Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1