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Palmeiras U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
Juan Ferreira 60'
Juan Francisco 39', 19'
P. Tavares 66' (pen)
Filipe 45'
7/29/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 12Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Palmeiras U1764%
×Draw17%
Cruzeiro U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U17
2.79
Cruzeiro U17
1.48

Palmeiras U17 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U17
3.57
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Palmeiras U17
0.86
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw
81%
Palmeiras U17 or Cruzeiro U17
83%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
36%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
44%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
94%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
76%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
52%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
77%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
43%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
77%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more
64%
level
17%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
19%

Palmeiras U17 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Juan Francisco
39'
Juan Francisco
45'
Filipe
60'
Juan Ferreira
66'
P. TavaresPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmeiras U17 vs Cruzeiro U17

Palmeiras U17 beat Cruzeiro U17 3-2 in Brasileiro U17 on July 29, 2025.

Goals: Juan Francisco (19', 39'), Filipe (45'), Juan Ferreira (60'), P. Tavares (66' pen).

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri, São Paulo.