Cruzeiro U17 0–2 Palmeiras U17: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras U17

7/31/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 5Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cruzeiro U1736%

×Draw24%

Palmeiras U1740%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruzeiro U17Expected goals in this matchPalmeiras U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Cruzeiro U17

1.50

Palmeiras U17

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.79

creates per match

2.06

1.11

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cruzeiro U17

1.79

Palmeiras U17

2.06

allows per match

Cruzeiro U17

1.11

Palmeiras U17

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U17 ↓

Palmeiras U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U17 or draw

60%

Cruzeiro U17 or Palmeiras U17

76%

Draw or Palmeiras U17

64%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+

17%

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals

78%

Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals

44%

Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals

19%

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

79%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

47%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)

48%

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Palmeiras U17 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U17 attack 1.79 + Palmeiras U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Palmeiras U17 attack 2.06 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cruzeiro U17 scores more

36%

level

24%

Palmeiras U17 scores more

40%

Palmeiras U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff