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Palmas vs Guarany de Sobral — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guarany de Sobral
Guarany de Sobral
8/21/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 12Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palmas33%
×Draw29%
Guarany de Sobral38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
1.04
Guarany de Sobral
1.15

Guarany de Sobral creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Guarany de Sobral
0.94

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Guarany de Sobral
1.50

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Guarany de Sobral+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Guarany de Sobral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
62%
Palmas or Guarany de Sobral
71%
Draw or Guarany de Sobral
67%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
13%
Guarany de Sobral wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
65%
Palmas 2+ goals
28%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%
Guarany de Sobral 1+ goals
68%
Guarany de Sobral 2+ goals
32%
Guarany de Sobral 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
46%
Guarany de Sobral (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Guarany de Sobral away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Guarany de Sobral defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Guarany de Sobral attack 0.94 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Palmas scores more
33%
level
29%
Guarany de Sobral scores more
38%

Guarany de Sobral at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guarany de Sobral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Palmas 0–2 Guarany de Sobral

Guarany de Sobral beat Palmas 2-0 in Serie D on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.