Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guarany de Sobral vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Guarany de Sobral
Guarany de Sobral
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Palmas
Palmas
6/19/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Municipal Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Guarany de Sobral56%
×Draw23%
Palmas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarany de Sobral
1.83
Palmas
1.03

Guarany de Sobral creates 78% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guarany de Sobral
1.38
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Guarany de Sobral
1.00
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Guarany de Sobral+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarany de Sobral ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Guarany de Sobral or draw
79%
Guarany de Sobral or Palmas
77%
Draw or Palmas
44%

Winning margin

Guarany de Sobral wins by 2+
32%
Palmas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guarany de Sobral 1+ goals
84%
Guarany de Sobral 2+ goals
54%
Guarany de Sobral 3+ goals
28%
Palmas 1+ goals
64%
Palmas 2+ goals
28%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guarany de Sobral (draw refunded)
73%
Palmas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarany de Sobral at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarany de Sobral attack 1.38 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Palmas attack 1.06 + Guarany de Sobral defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Guarany de Sobral scores more
56%
level
23%
Palmas scores more
21%

Guarany de Sobral at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Guarany de Sobral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Guarany de Sobral 2–1 Palmas

Guarany de Sobral beat Palmas 2-1 in Serie D on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Sobral, Ceará.