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Palmas vs Gama — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gama
Gama
10/14/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas22%
×Draw29%
Gama49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
0.75
Gama
1.29

Gama creates 72% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Gama
1.23

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Gama
0.91

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
51%
Palmas or Gama
71%
Draw or Gama
78%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
6%
Gama wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
53%
Palmas 2+ goals
17%
Palmas 3+ goals
4%
Gama 1+ goals
72%
Gama 2+ goals
37%
Gama 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
31%
Gama (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Gama away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Gama defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.75

Gama attack 1.23 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Palmas scores more
22%
level
29%
Gama scores more
49%

Gama at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Palmas 0 – 3 Gama

Gama beat Palmas 3-0 in Serie D on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.