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Gama vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Gama
Gama
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Palmas
Palmas
10/24/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 9Estádio Walmir Campelo Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gama64%
×Draw20%
Palmas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gama
2.20
Palmas
1.03

Gama creates 114% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gama
2.10
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Gama
1.00
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Gama+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gama ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gama or draw
83%
Gama or Palmas
80%
Draw or Palmas
36%

Winning margin

Gama wins by 2+
40%
Palmas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gama 1+ goals
89%
Gama 2+ goals
64%
Gama 3+ goals
37%
Palmas 1+ goals
64%
Palmas 2+ goals
28%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gama (draw refunded)
79%
Palmas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gama at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gama attack 2.10 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.20

Palmas attack 1.06 + Gama defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gama scores more
64%
level
20%
Palmas scores more
17%

Gama at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gama 6 – 1 Palmas

Gama beat Palmas 6-1 in Serie D on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Walmir Campelo Bezerra in Gama, Distrito Federal.