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Palmas vs Atlético Alagoinhas — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Alagoinhas
Atlético Alagoinhas
11/13/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 12Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas34%
×Draw28%
Atlético Alagoinhas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
1.14
Atlético Alagoinhas
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Atlético Alagoinhas
1.10

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Atlético Alagoinhas
1.68

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Atlético Alagoinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
62%
Palmas or Atlético Alagoinhas
72%
Draw or Atlético Alagoinhas
66%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
68%
Palmas 2+ goals
32%
Palmas 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
47%
Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Atlético Alagoinhas away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.10 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Palmas scores more
34%
level
28%
Atlético Alagoinhas scores more
38%

Atlético Alagoinhas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Alagoinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmas vs Atlético Alagoinhas

Atlético Alagoinhas beat Palmas 2-1 in Serie D on November 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.