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Atlético Alagoinhas vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Atlético Alagoinhas
Atlético Alagoinhas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Palmas
Palmas
10/2/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Alagoinhas49%
×Draw24%
Palmas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.73
Palmas
1.24

Atlético Alagoinhas creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.18
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.42
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Alagoinhas ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Alagoinhas or draw
73%
Atlético Alagoinhas or Palmas
76%
Draw or Palmas
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+
26%
Palmas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals
82%
Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals
52%
Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals
25%
Palmas 1+ goals
71%
Palmas 2+ goals
35%
Palmas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)
64%
Palmas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Alagoinhas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.18 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Palmas attack 1.06 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Alagoinhas scores more
49%
level
24%
Palmas scores more
27%

Atlético Alagoinhas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Alagoinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Alagoinhas vs Palmas

Atlético Alagoinhas beat Palmas 3-0 in Serie D on October 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.