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Palestino vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Palestino
Palestino
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
3/2/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Palestino40%
×Draw25%
U. Catolica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
1.48
U. Catolica
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Palestino
1.77
U. Catolica
1.50

allows per match

Palestino
1.23
U. Catolica
1.19

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
65%
Palestino or U. Catolica
75%
Draw or U. Catolica
60%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
19%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
77%
Palestino 2+ goals
43%
Palestino 3+ goals
19%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
74%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
39%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
54%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.77 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Palestino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Palestino scores more
40%
level
25%
U. Catolica scores more
35%

Palestino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Palestino 0–2 U. Catolica

U. Catolica beat Palestino 2-0 in Primera División on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.