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Palestino vs Mushuc Runa SC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Palestino
Palestino
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
C. Penilla 89'
C. Orejuela 71'
5/29/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Palestino23%
×Draw31%
Mushuc Runa SC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
0.72
Mushuc Runa SC
1.17

Mushuc Runa SC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Palestino
0.76
Mushuc Runa SC
1.17

allows per match

Palestino
1.18
Mushuc Runa SC
0.67

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
53%
Palestino or Mushuc Runa SC
69%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
77%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
7%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
51%
Palestino 2+ goals
16%
Palestino 3+ goals
4%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
69%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
33%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
33%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 0.76 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.17 + Palestino defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Palestino scores more
23%
level
31%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
47%

Mushuc Runa SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. PenillaMushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC · F
8.5

Match Events

19'
Vicente Espinoza
24'
Steven Tapiero
45+2'
Nicolás Davila
46'
Dennis Quintero
57'
Fernando Meza
58'
Julián Fernández
66'
F. Castro← B. Carrasco
66'
J. Benitez← G. Tapia Paez
66'
J. Bizama← J. Fernandez
66'
C. Orejuela← B. Miranda
66'
R. Simisterra← E. Caicedo
68'
Renny Simisterra
71'
C. Orejuela
78'
P. Parra← A. E. Martinez Arce
78'
J. Arias← J. Marabel
80'
A. Gracia← G. Mina
89'
C. Penilla↳ C. Orejuela

Possession

56%Palestino

Shots

13Palestino

Pass accuracy

52%Palestino

Statistics

PalestinoMushuc
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots18
4Corners8
7Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots18
4On Target5
7Off Target9
2Blocked4
12Inside Box11
1Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
366Total Passes291
256Accurate Passes187
70%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Palestino vs Mushuc Runa SC

Mushuc Runa SC beat Palestino 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 29, 2025.

Goals: C. Orejuela (71'), C. Penilla (89').

Palestino controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.