Mushuc Runa SC 3–2 Palestino: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Palestino

M. Alonso 83'

R. Simisterra 76'

L. Haquin 42'

B. Carrasco 90'

J. Marabel 72'

4/4/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC52%

×Draw24%

Palestino23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

Mushuc Runa SC

1.68

Palestino

1.04

Mushuc Runa SC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

0.89

1.20

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.80

Palestino

0.89

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.20

Palestino

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

77%

Mushuc Runa SC or Palestino

76%

Draw or Palestino

48%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

28%

Palestino wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

81%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

50%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

24%

Palestino 1+ goals

65%

Palestino 2+ goals

28%

Palestino 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

69%

Palestino (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.80 + Palestino defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Palestino attack 0.89 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

52%

level

24%

Palestino scores more

23%

Mushuc Runa SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Penilla

Mushuc Runa SC · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

Carlos Orejuela

38'

Fernando Meza

42'

L. Haquin↳ R. Simisterra

46'

Bryan Angulo← E. Caicedo

60'

Nicolás Davila

64'

P. Parra← A. E. Martinez Arce

64'

G. Tapia Paez← J. Benitez

68'

K. Peralta← C. Orejuela

72'

J. Marabel↳ B. Carrasco

73'

Dennis Quintero

75'

M. Alonso← L. Haquin

76'

R. Simisterra↳ S. Tapiero

81'

J. Arias← J. Abrigo

83'

M. Alonso↳ Bryan Angulo

86'

B. Delgado← A. Gracia

87'

G. Mina← R. Simisterra

90+1'

Antonio Ceza

90'

B. Carrasco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucPalestino

Overview

43%Possession57%

20Total Shots7

4Corners11

14Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target3

11Off Target3

3Blocked1

10Inside Box2

10Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

222Total Passes298

150Accurate Passes205

68%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs Palestino

Mushuc Runa SC beat Palestino 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 4, 2025.

Goals: L. Haquin (42'), J. Marabel (72'), R. Simisterra (76'), M. Alonso (83'), B. Carrasco (90').

Palestino controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa in Ambato.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs Palestino