Palestino 3–1 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Millonarios

B. Véjar 75'

F. Chamorro 42', 19'

L. Castro 32'

4/26/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Palestino60%

×Draw22%

Millonarios18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

Palestino

1.92

Millonarios

0.94

Palestino creates 104% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Palestino

1.50

Millonarios

0.67

allows per match

Palestino

1.20

Millonarios

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

82%

Palestino or Millonarios

78%

Draw or Millonarios

40%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

36%

Millonarios wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

85%

Palestino 2+ goals

57%

Palestino 3+ goals

30%

Millonarios 1+ goals

61%

Millonarios 2+ goals

24%

Millonarios 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

77%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Millonarios away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.50 + Millonarios defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Millonarios attack 0.67 + Palestino defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Palestino scores more

60%

level

22%

Millonarios scores more

18%

Palestino at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Chamorro

Palestino · M

8.5

Match Events

19'

F. Chamorro

32'

L. Castro↳ J. Hernández

35'

D. Banguero← D. Cataño

38'

Stiven Vega

42'

F. Chamorro↳ A. Martínez

54'

N. Linares← B. Carrasco

58'

Joe Abrigo

61'

B. Véjar← J. Abrigo

69'

P. Palacio← J. Benítez

69'

F. Montes← F. Chamorro

69'

I. Román← D. Zúñiga

75'

B. Véjar

76'

S. Giordana← S. Vega

84'

L. Vásquez← D. Giraldo

84'

J. Pereira← D. Ruiz

84'

B. Castro← J. Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoMillonarios

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots19

2.77Expected Goals (xG)1.69

2Corners5

10Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots19

6On Target3

2Off Target9

2Blocked7

8Inside Box14

2Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

481Total Passes417

357Accurate Passes317

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2