Millonarios 1–1 Palestino: Result & Stats

Millonarios

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Palestino

J. Carvajal 40'

J. Marabel 90+2'

5/15/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Millonarios40%

×Draw26%

Palestino34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.28

Millonarios

1.39

Palestino

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

1.40

1.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Millonarios

1.17

Palestino

1.40

allows per match

Millonarios

1.17

Palestino

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

66%

Millonarios or Palestino

74%

Draw or Palestino

60%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

18%

Palestino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

75%

Millonarios 2+ goals

40%

Millonarios 3+ goals

16%

Palestino 1+ goals

72%

Palestino 2+ goals

37%

Palestino 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

53%

Palestino (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.17 + Palestino defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Palestino attack 1.40 + Millonarios defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millonarios scores more

40%

level

26%

Palestino scores more

34%

Millonarios at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Vargas

Millonarios · D

7.9

Match Events

40'

J. Carvajal↳ D. Alfonzo

56'

J. Abrigo← F. Chamorro

56'

B. Véjar← B. Carrasco

61'

J. Marabel

62'

J. Benitez

64'

D. Giraldo

76'

L. Paredes← E. Rodríguez

76'

P. Palacio← F. Cornejo

76'

M. Fuentes← J. Benítez

83'

D. Banguero← D. Ruiz

83'

V. Espinoza← B. Rojas

87'

S. Vega← J. Carvajal

87'

J. Arias← D. Silva

88'

V. A. Espinoza Hevia

90+4'

C. Suarez

90+2'

J. Marabel↳ M. Fuentes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillonariosPalestino

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots10

1.56Expected Goals (xG)0.56

7Corners4

5Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots10

4On Target5

11Off Target3

7Blocked2

12Inside Box5

10Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

385Total Passes312

298Accurate Passes219

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1