Palestino 2–1 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Everton de Vina

J. Arias 72'

J. Leon 61'

S. Sosa 53' (pen)

10/24/2025

Primera División · Round 25Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Palestino45%

×Draw25%

Everton de Vina30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.24

Palestino

1.57

Everton de Vina

1.24

Palestino creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

1.75

creates per match

1.28

1.20

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Palestino

1.75

Everton de Vina

1.28

allows per match

Palestino

1.20

Everton de Vina

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

70%

Palestino or Everton de Vina

75%

Draw or Everton de Vina

55%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

23%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

79%

Palestino 2+ goals

46%

Palestino 3+ goals

21%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

71%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

35%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

60%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.75 + Everton de Vina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Everton de Vina attack 1.28 + Palestino defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Palestino scores more

45%

level

25%

Everton de Vina scores more

30%

Palestino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Leon

Palestino · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

Rodrigo Piñeiro

28'

Joe Abrigo

45+1'

Bryan Carrasco

50'

Benjamín BerríosPenalty confirmed

53'

S. SosaPenalty

61'

J. Leon↳ J. Fernandez

63'

Diego Oyarzún

68'

D. Salgado← G. Tapia Paez

69'

J. Arias← F. T. Montes Romero

69'

S. A. Hernandez← J. Cruz

70'

Ian Gárguez

72'

J. Arias↳ J. Abrigo

73'

Junior AriasGoal confirmed

76'

Julián Alfaro

77'

M. Campos← J. Alfaro

77'

N. Baeza← A. Ibacache

79'

Cristián Suárez

82'

A. A. Ceza Gavilan← B. Carrasco

86'

M. Guzman← R. Pineiro

87'

Raimundo Rebolledo

90'

V. A. Espinoza Hevia← I. A. Garguez Gomez

90'

R. Fernandez← J. Marabel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoEverton

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots7

5Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target3

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

500Total Passes283

401Accurate Passes184

80%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

4Yellow Cards4