Everton de Vina 1–2 Palestino: Result & Stats

Everton de Vina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Palestino

A. Madrid 45'

J. Marabel 22'

J. Abrigo 11'

5/3/2025

Primera División · Round 10Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Everton de Vina38%

×Draw28%

Palestino34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Everton de Vina

1.22

Palestino

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.04

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.13

Palestino

1.24

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.04

Palestino

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

66%

Everton de Vina or Palestino

72%

Draw or Palestino

62%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

16%

Palestino wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

70%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

34%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

12%

Palestino 1+ goals

68%

Palestino 2+ goals

32%

Palestino 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

53%

Palestino (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.04 · 84 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.13 + Palestino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Palestino attack 1.24 + Everton de Vina defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

38%

level

28%

Palestino scores more

34%

Everton de Vina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Suarez

Palestino · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

Emiliano Ramos

11'

J. Abrigo↳ J. Benitez

19'

Jonathan Benítez

22'

J. Marabel↳ J. Benitez

41'

R. Pineiro← M. Campos

45'

A. Madrid

55'

P. Parra← J. Benitez

61'

J. Delgado← R. Rebolledo

76'

N. Meza← J. Fernandez

76'

I. A. Garguez Gomez← B. Carrasco

81'

J. Moya← B. Berrios

81'

J. Cruz← E. M. Ramos Aviles

89'

J. Bizama← A. E. Martinez Arce

89'

J. Arias← J. Abrigo

90+6'

Joaquín Moya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonPalestino

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots11

4Corners4

12Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked2

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

338Total Passes467

262Accurate Passes363

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0