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Palestino vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Palestino
Palestino
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
11/23/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Palestino46%
×Draw25%
Everton de Vina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
1.59
Everton de Vina
1.20

Palestino creates 33% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 127 away

creates per match

Palestino
1.77
Everton de Vina
1.17

allows per match

Palestino
1.23
Everton de Vina
1.41

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
71%
Palestino or Everton de Vina
75%
Draw or Everton de Vina
54%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
24%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
80%
Palestino 2+ goals
47%
Palestino 3+ goals
21%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
70%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
34%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
62%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.77 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Everton de Vina attack 1.17 + Palestino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Palestino scores more
46%
level
25%
Everton de Vina scores more
29%

Palestino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palestino vs Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina beat Palestino 2-0 in Primera División on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.