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Palestino vs Curico Unido — Primera División 2018

Palestino
Palestino
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Curico Unido
Curico Unido
8/27/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 23Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Palestino50%
×Draw24%
Curico Unido26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
1.66
Curico Unido
1.13

Palestino creates 47% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 91 away

creates per match

Palestino
1.77
Curico Unido
1.02

allows per match

Palestino
1.23
Curico Unido
1.55

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Curico Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
74%
Palestino or Curico Unido
76%
Draw or Curico Unido
50%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
26%
Curico Unido wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
81%
Palestino 2+ goals
49%
Palestino 3+ goals
23%
Curico Unido 1+ goals
68%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
31%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
66%
Curico Unido (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.77 + Curico Unido defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Curico Unido attack 1.02 + Palestino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Palestino scores more
50%
level
24%
Curico Unido scores more
26%

Palestino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palestino vs Curico Unido

Palestino beat Curico Unido 2-1 in Primera División on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.