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Curico Unido vs Palestino — Primera División 2018

Curico Unido
Curico Unido
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Palestino
Palestino
5/15/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 14Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Curico Unido40%
×Draw26%
Palestino34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curico Unido
1.43
Palestino
1.29

Curico Unido creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 127 away

creates per match

Curico Unido
1.49
Palestino
1.22

allows per match

Curico Unido
1.36
Palestino
1.36

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw
66%
Curico Unido or Palestino
74%
Draw or Palestino
60%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+
19%
Palestino wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals
76%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
42%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
17%
Palestino 1+ goals
72%
Palestino 2+ goals
37%
Palestino 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)
54%
Palestino (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.49 + Palestino defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Palestino attack 1.22 + Curico Unido defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Curico Unido scores more
40%
level
26%
Palestino scores more
34%

Curico Unido at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Curico Unido 0–1 Palestino

Palestino beat Curico Unido 1-0 in Primera División on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Curicó.