Palestino 2–1 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cruzeiro

J. Arias 87'

C. Suarez 41'

Eduardo 84'

4/25/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Palestino27%

×Draw32%

Cruzeiro41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.04

Palestino

0.78

Cruzeiro

1.04

Cruzeiro creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

0.76

creates per match

0.90

1.18

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Palestino

0.76

Cruzeiro

0.90

allows per match

Palestino

1.18

Cruzeiro

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

59%

Palestino or Cruzeiro

68%

Draw or Cruzeiro

73%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

8%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

54%

Palestino 2+ goals

18%

Palestino 3+ goals

4%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

65%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

28%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

40%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 0.76 + Cruzeiro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Palestino defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Palestino scores more

27%

level

32%

Cruzeiro scores more

41%

Cruzeiro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. E. Martinez Arce

Palestino · M

7.5

Match Events

41'

C. Suarez↳ J. Benitez

64'

Wanderson← L. Diaz

64'

Kenji← Rodriguinho

64'

Kaio Jorge← Kaiki

64'

Marquinhos← Dudu

68'

P. Parra← J. Benitez

78'

J. Arias← J. Abrigo

78'

Eduardo← Murilo Rhikman

84'

Eduardo↳ Wanderson

85'

N. Meza← A. E. Martinez Arce

85'

D. Zuniga← B. Carrasco

87'

J. Arias↳ P. Parra

90+5'

Junior Marabel

90+3'

Nicolás Meza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoCruzeiro

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots15

5Corners8

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots15

6On Target5

3Off Target5

4Blocked5

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

315Total Passes492

238Accurate Passes410

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2