Cruzeiro 2–1 Palestino: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palestino

Gabriel Barbosa 90'

Y. Bolasie 69'

A. E. Martinez Arce 7'

5/15/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cruzeiro48%

×Draw27%

Palestino25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.95

Cruzeiro

1.41

Palestino

0.95

Cruzeiro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.25

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.25

Palestino

0.89

allows per match

Cruzeiro

1.00

Palestino

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

75%

Cruzeiro or Palestino

73%

Draw or Palestino

52%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

23%

Palestino wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

76%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

41%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

17%

Palestino 1+ goals

61%

Palestino 2+ goals

25%

Palestino 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

65%

Palestino (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.25 + Palestino defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Palestino attack 0.89 + Cruzeiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

48%

level

27%

Palestino scores more

25%

Cruzeiro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

William Furtado

Cruzeiro · D

8.9

Match Events

7'

A. E. Martinez Arce↳ J. Abrigo

43'

William

46'

M. Gamarra← L. Villalba

46'

Walace← L. Romero

46'

Rodriguinho← Christian

49'

50'

58'

59'

67'

69'

Y. Bolasie↳ William Furtado

70'

J. Dinenno← Kenji

73'

Gabriel Barbosa

76'

Jonathan Benítez

76'

P. Parra← J. Benitez

76'

F. Castro← B. Carrasco

90+3'

D. Salgado← J. Fernandez

90'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ J. Dinenno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroPalestino

Overview

60%Possession40%

24Total Shots7

16Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots7

11On Target1

6Off Target5

7Blocked1

16Inside Box3

8Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

506Total Passes335

435Accurate Passes260

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Cruzeiro 2–1 Palestino

Cruzeiro beat Palestino 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 15, 2025.

Goals: A. E. Martinez Arce (7'), Y. Bolasie (69'), Gabriel Barbosa (90').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (60%) and registered 24 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte.

Cruzeiro vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Cruzeiro 2–1 Palestino