Palestino 2–0 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coquimbo Unido

A. Martínez 90+3' (pen)

J. Abrigo 48'

10/6/2024

Primera División · Round 27Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Palestino42%

×Draw25%

Coquimbo Unido33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.33

Palestino

1.54

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

Palestino creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.99

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Palestino

1.99

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

allows per match

Palestino

1.33

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Palestino-0.42scores less

Coquimbo Unido-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

67%

Palestino or Coquimbo Unido

75%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

58%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

21%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

79%

Palestino 2+ goals

45%

Palestino 3+ goals

20%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

74%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

38%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

56%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.33 · 7 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.99 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.54

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.33 + Palestino defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Palestino scores more

42%

level

25%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

33%

Palestino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Abrigo

Palestino · F

7.5

Match Events

29'

J. Marabel← G. Sosa

34'

Joe Abrigo

45+2'

Sebastián Cabrera

46'

J. Benítez← B. Carrasco

48'

49'

55'

55'

57'

60'

C. Barrera← M. Alvarado

60'

J. Bauman← J. Vázquez

62'

A. Martínez← N. Linares

72'

P. Palacio← J. Garro

72'

F. Chamorro← J. Abrigo

72'

J. Henríquez← B. Chandía

77'

Jorge Henríquez

81'

I. Jara← A. Camargo

81'

J. Cornejo← S. Cabrera

90'

Junior MarabelPenalty confirmed

90+1'

Juan Cornejo

90+3'

A. MartínezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoCoquimbo

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots7

3Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots7

2On Target3

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

319Total Passes321

205Accurate Passes213

64%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2