Coquimbo Unido 0–0 Palestino: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palestino

6/6/2024

Primera División · Round 12Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Coquimbo Unido46%

×Draw27%

Palestino27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

Coquimbo Unido

1.41

Palestino

1.00

Coquimbo Unido creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.79

creates per match

1.32

0.68

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.79

Palestino

1.32

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.68

Palestino

1.02

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.10scores more

Palestino-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

73%

Coquimbo Unido or Palestino

73%

Draw or Palestino

54%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

22%

Palestino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

76%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

41%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

17%

Palestino 1+ goals

63%

Palestino 2+ goals

26%

Palestino 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

63%

Palestino (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.79 + Palestino defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.41

Palestino attack 1.32 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

46%

level

27%

Palestino scores more

27%

Coquimbo Unido at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Rigamonti

Palestino · G

7.9

Match Events

33'

Ariel Martínez

39'

Antonio Ceza

57'

B. Chandía← M. Mundaca

61'

J. Abrigo← A. Martínez

67'

A. Chávez← N. Johansen

67'

M. Fuentes← M. Dávila

68'

A. Azócar← C. Barrera

72'

Sebastián Galani

77'

Manuel Fernández

78'

P. Palacio← J. Benítez

83'

A. Camargo← S. Galani

89'

Andrés Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoquimboPalestino

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots9

10Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target0

5Off Target8

4Blocked1

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

365Total Passes318

264Accurate Passes210

72%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2