Palestino 2–1 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cobresal

P. Parra 75' (pen)

B. Carrasco 61' (pen)

J. A. Henriquez Neira 86' (pen)

2/15/2025

Primera División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Palestino54%

×Draw20%

Cobresal26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.50

Palestino

2.24

Cobresal

1.50

Palestino creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.99

creates per match

1.66

1.33

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Palestino

1.99

Cobresal

1.66

allows per match

Palestino

1.33

Cobresal

2.49

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Palestino-0.42scores less

Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

74%

Palestino or Cobresal

80%

Draw or Cobresal

46%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

33%

Cobresal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

89%

Palestino 2+ goals

65%

Palestino 3+ goals

38%

Cobresal 1+ goals

78%

Cobresal 2+ goals

44%

Cobresal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

68%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.33 · 7 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.99 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.24

Cobresal attack 1.66 + Palestino defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Palestino scores more

54%

level

20%

Cobresal scores more

26%

Palestino at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

P. Parra

Palestino · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

Cristhofer Mesías

46'

C. Munder← C. Navarrete

60'

Bryan CarrascoPenalty confirmed

61'

B. CarrascoPenalty

63'

65'

69'

73'

75'

P. ParraPenalty

76'

J. Benitez← G. Tapia Paez

76'

F. T. Montes Romero← P. Parra

76'

B. Valenzuela← A. Vilches Araneda

76'

D. Coelho← C. Mesias

82'

Joe AbrigoPenalty cancelled

86'

J. A. Henriquez NeiraPenalty

88'

Sebastián Pérez

88'

César Munder

90+4'

V. A. Espinoza Hevia← B. Carrasco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoCobresal

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots14

3.25Expected Goals (xG)2.28

2Corners5

10Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots14

7On Target6

5Off Target3

2Blocked5

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

471Total Passes296

388Accurate Passes216

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides3

Primera División: Palestino 2–1 Cobresal

Palestino beat Cobresal 2-1 in Primera División on February 15, 2025.

Goals: B. Carrasco (61' pen), P. Parra (75' pen), J. A. Henriquez Neira (86' pen).

Palestino controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.

Palestino vs Cobresal — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Palestino 2–1 Cobresal