Cobresal 0–2 Palestino: Result & Stats

Cobresal

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Palestino

G. Sosa 61'

B. Carrasco 58'

3/29/2024

Primera División · Round 6Estadio El Cobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal41%

×Draw26%

Palestino33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Cobresal

1.44

Palestino

1.25

Cobresal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

1.39

1.12

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Cobresal

1.86

Palestino

1.39

allows per match

Cobresal

1.12

Palestino

1.01

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less

Palestino-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

67%

Cobresal or Palestino

74%

Draw or Palestino

59%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

20%

Palestino wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

76%

Cobresal 2+ goals

42%

Cobresal 3+ goals

18%

Palestino 1+ goals

71%

Palestino 2+ goals

36%

Palestino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

56%

Palestino (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + Palestino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.44

Palestino attack 1.39 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cobresal scores more

41%

level

26%

Palestino scores more

33%

Cobresal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Suárez

Palestino · D

7.6

Match Events

29'

37'

45+1'

45+1'

45'

46'

M. Jorquera← S. Carrasco

46'

J. Benítez← P. Palacio

57'

A. Martínez← F. Cornejo

57'

J. Abrigo← M. Dávila

58'

B. Carrasco↳ J. Benítez

59'

D. Coelho← G. Lezcano

61'

G. Sosa↳ N. Linares

71'

Iván Román

74'

B. Véjar← B. Carrasco

78'

78'

79'

82'

89'

89'

F. Barrientos← C. Mesías

90+5'

Francisco Alarcón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobresalPalestino

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots13

4Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots13

1On Target4

6Off Target7

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

408Total Passes491

334Accurate Passes429

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Cobresal vs Palestino

Palestino beat Cobresal 2-0 in Primera División on March 29, 2024.

Goals: B. Carrasco (58'), G. Sosa (61').

Palestino controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio El Cobre in El Salvador, Diego de Almagro.

Cobresal vs Palestino — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cobresal vs Palestino