Palermo 2–1 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Reggiana

N. Pierozzi 64'

J. Pohjanpalo 38'

E. Tavsan 62'

8/23/2025

Serie B · Round 1Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Palermo53%

×Draw24%

Reggiana23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.04

Palermo

1.70

Reggiana

1.04

Palermo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.94

creates per match

1.09

0.99

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Palermo

1.94

Reggiana

1.09

allows per match

Palermo

0.99

Reggiana

1.46

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more

Reggiana-0.65scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

77%

Palermo or Reggiana

76%

Draw or Reggiana

47%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

29%

Reggiana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

82%

Palermo 2+ goals

51%

Palermo 3+ goals

24%

Reggiana 1+ goals

65%

Reggiana 2+ goals

28%

Reggiana 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

69%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.46 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Reggiana defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.70

Reggiana attack 1.09 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Palermo scores more

53%

level

24%

Reggiana scores more

23%

Palermo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Motta

Reggiana · G

10.0

Match Events

10'

Matteo BrunoriGoal cancelled

30'

Salim Diakité

38'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ N. Pierozzi

46'

P. Peda← S. Diakite

52'

Andrea Papetti

62'

E. Tavsan↳ M. Bertagnoli

64'

N. Pierozzi↳ J. Segre

69'

J. Le Douaron← M. Brunori

70'

A. Blin← E. Gyasi

76'

P. Rozzio← L. Libutti

79'

A. Palumbo← F. Ranocchia

79'

A. Novakovich← M. Bertagnoli

87'

G. Corona← J. Pohjanpalo

88'

L. Stulac← T. Reinhart

88'

O. Conte← M. Rover

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoReggiana

Overview

50%Possession50%

25Total Shots10

9Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

25Total Shots10

14On Target3

6Off Target3

5Blocked4

20Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

352Total Passes359

297Accurate Passes298

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves12

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1