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Palermo vs Reggiana — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Reggiana
Reggiana
T. Henry 26'
C. Gomes 15'
10/26/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Palermo52%
×Draw24%
Reggiana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.68
Reggiana
1.06

Palermo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.94
Reggiana
1.14

allows per match

Palermo
0.99
Reggiana
1.42

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more
Reggiana-0.64scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Reggiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
76%
Palermo or Reggiana
76%
Draw or Reggiana
48%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
28%
Reggiana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
81%
Palermo 2+ goals
50%
Palermo 3+ goals
24%
Reggiana 1+ goals
65%
Reggiana 2+ goals
29%
Reggiana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
68%
Reggiana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Reggiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.68

Reggiana attack 1.14 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palermo scores more
52%
level
24%
Reggiana scores more
24%

Palermo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
C. GomesPalermoPalermo · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
C. Gomes↳ F. Di Francesco
26'
T. Henry
46'
M. Portanova← N. Girma
48'
Lorenzo Ignacchiti
50'
Manuel Marras
65'
A. Vasić← V. Verre
65'
I. Nedelcearu← R. Baniya
66'
O. Okwonkwo← L. Vido
66'
M. Maggio← L. Ignacchiti
66'
A. Vergara← M. Marras
72'
K. Lund← P. Ceccaroni
73'
J. Le Douaron← T. Henry
75'
Claudio Gomes
78'
S. Pettinari← L. Štulac
86'
A. Buttaro← R. Insigne

Possession

53%Palermo

Shots

19Palermo

Pass accuracy

52%Palermo

Statistics

PalermoReggiana
Overview
53%Possession47%
19Total Shots6
5Corners4
17Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots6
4On Target3
8Off Target2
7Blocked1
9Inside Box4
10Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
426Total Passes396
363Accurate Passes316
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Palermo vs Reggiana

Palermo beat Reggiana 2-0 in Serie B on October 26, 2024.

Goals: C. Gomes (15'), T. Henry (26').

Palermo controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.