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Palermo vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
S. Moreo 87'
R. Murawski 86'
G. Puşcaş 37'
11/11/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 12Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Palermo52%
×Draw23%
Pescara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.81
Pescara
1.19

Palermo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.94
Pescara
1.40

allows per match

Palermo
0.99
Pescara
1.69

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more
Pescara+0.10scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
75%
Palermo or Pescara
77%
Draw or Pescara
48%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
29%
Pescara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
84%
Palermo 2+ goals
54%
Palermo 3+ goals
27%
Pescara 1+ goals
70%
Pescara 2+ goals
33%
Pescara 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
67%
Pescara (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Pescara defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.81

Pescara attack 1.40 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palermo scores more
52%
level
23%
Pescara scores more
25%

Palermo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
G. Puşcaş↳ N. Haas
44'
Leonardo Mancuso
58'
George Pușcaș
59'
G. Monachello← M. Antonucci
65'
F. Del Sole← M. Marras
72'
R. Murawski← C. Falletti
77'
L. Crecco← M. Ciofani
81'
S. Moreo← G. Puşcaş
86'
R. Murawski↳ A. Trajkovski
87'
S. Moreo↳ I. Nestorovski
89'
José Machín
90'
Aljaž Struna
90+1'
I. Chochev← N. Haas

Possession

48%Palermo

Shots

14Palermo

Statistics

PalermoPescara
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots6
3Corners11
12Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots6
4On Target2
10Off Target4
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Serie B: Palermo 3–0 Pescara

Palermo beat Pescara 3-0 in Serie B on November 11, 2018.

Goals: G. Puşcaş (37'), R. Murawski (86'), S. Moreo (87').

Pescara controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Renzo Barbera in Palermo.