Palermo 1–1 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pescara

Coronado 24'

L. Valzania 39'

4/7/2018

Serie B · Round 34Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Palermo52%

×Draw23%

Pescara25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.19

Palermo

1.81

Pescara

1.19

Palermo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.94

creates per match

1.40

0.99

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Palermo

1.94

Pescara

1.40

allows per match

Palermo

0.99

Pescara

1.69

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more

Pescara+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

75%

Palermo or Pescara

77%

Draw or Pescara

48%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

29%

Pescara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

84%

Palermo 2+ goals

54%

Palermo 3+ goals

27%

Pescara 1+ goals

70%

Pescara 2+ goals

33%

Pescara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

67%

Pescara (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Pescara defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.81

Pescara attack 1.40 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palermo scores more

52%

level

23%

Pescara scores more

25%

Palermo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Andrea Coda

24'

Coronado↳ M. Jajalo

39'

L. Valzania

57'

E. Gnahoré← I. Chochev

76'

Pepín← M. Coulibaly

77'

A. Trajkovski← Coronado

81'

A. Cocco← S. Pettinari

82'

Mato Jajalo

85'

Eddy Gnahoré

86'

A. Balzano← L. Mancuso

87'

S. Moreo← I. Nestorovski

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PalermoPescara

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots10

6Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target3

6Off Target7

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1