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Palermo vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
1/19/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 22Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Palermo70%
×Draw19%
Juve Stabia11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
2.15
Juve Stabia
0.72

Palermo creates 199% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Palermo
2.53
Juve Stabia
0.64

allows per match

Palermo
0.80
Juve Stabia
1.78

finishing

Palermo+0.14scores more
Juve Stabia+0.36scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
89%
Palermo or Juve Stabia
81%
Draw or Juve Stabia
30%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
46%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
88%
Palermo 2+ goals
63%
Palermo 3+ goals
36%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
51%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
16%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
86%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.80 · 6 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.78 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.53 + Juve Stabia defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.15

Juve Stabia attack 0.64 + Palermo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Palermo scores more
70%
level
19%
Juve Stabia scores more
11%

Palermo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palermo vs Juve Stabia

Palermo beat Juve Stabia 1-0 in Serie B on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.