Juve Stabia 1–3 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Palermo

9/14/2024

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia41%

×Draw26%

Palermo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.20

Juve Stabia

1.39

Palermo

1.20

Juve Stabia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 97 away

1.42

creates per match

1.32

1.08

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Palermo

1.32

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Palermo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

68%

Juve Stabia or Palermo

74%

Draw or Palermo

59%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

19%

Palermo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

75%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

40%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

16%

Palermo 1+ goals

70%

Palermo 2+ goals

34%

Palermo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

56%

Palermo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Palermo attack 1.32 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

41%

level

26%

Palermo scores more

32%

Juve Stabia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff