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Palermo vs Genoa — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
9/9/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Palermo40%
×Draw28%
Genoa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.27
Genoa
1.10

Palermo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 19 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.59
Genoa
1.26

allows per match

Palermo
0.95
Genoa
0.95

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
68%
Palermo or Genoa
72%
Draw or Genoa
60%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
18%
Genoa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
72%
Palermo 2+ goals
36%
Palermo 3+ goals
14%
Genoa 1+ goals
67%
Genoa 2+ goals
30%
Genoa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
56%
Genoa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.59 + Genoa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Genoa attack 1.26 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Palermo scores more
40%
level
28%
Genoa scores more
32%

Palermo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Palermo 1–0 Genoa

Palermo beat Genoa 1-0 in Serie B on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.