Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Genoa vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Genoa
Genoa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Palermo
Palermo
2/10/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Genoa49%
×Draw27%
Palermo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.44
Palermo
0.93

Genoa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.53
Palermo
1.32

allows per match

Genoa
0.53
Palermo
1.35

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
76%
Genoa or Palermo
73%
Draw or Palermo
51%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
24%
Palermo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
76%
Genoa 2+ goals
42%
Genoa 3+ goals
18%
Palermo 1+ goals
61%
Palermo 2+ goals
24%
Palermo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
67%
Palermo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.53 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Palermo attack 1.32 + Genoa defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Genoa scores more
49%
level
27%
Palermo scores more
24%

Genoa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genoa 2 – 0 Palermo

Genoa beat Palermo 2-0 in Serie B on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.