Palermo 1–1 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Benevento

M. Sala 11'

Diego Farias 28'

4/22/2023

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Palermo42%

×Draw27%

Benevento31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Palermo

1.33

Benevento

1.09

Palermo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 79 away

1.62

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Palermo

1.62

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Palermo

0.95

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

69%

Palermo or Benevento

73%

Draw or Benevento

58%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

19%

Benevento wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

38%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Benevento 1+ goals

66%

Benevento 2+ goals

30%

Benevento 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

58%

Benevento (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.62 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Benevento attack 1.24 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Palermo scores more

42%

level

27%

Benevento scores more

31%

Palermo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

N. Manfredini

Benevento · G

8.2

Match Events

11'

M. Sala↳ N. Valente

28'

Diego Farias↳ C. Ciano

46'

S. Damiani← V. Verre

46'

J. Broh← D. Šarić

46'

N. Karić← M. Viviani

59'

S. Pettinari← Diego Farias

62'

67'

68'

71'

72'

A. Tello← G. Acampora

76'

L. Carfora← C. Ciano

77'

Frédéric Veseli

89'

Alin Toșca

90+7'

Jérémie BrohGoal cancelled

90+1'

L. Vido← M. Brunori

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoBenevento

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots16

7Corners11

12Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots16

9On Target5

6Off Target6

3Blocked5

11Inside Box10

7Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

456Total Passes367

368Accurate Passes284

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1