Benevento 0–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Palermo

M. Brunori 54'

12/4/2022

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Benevento45%

×Draw25%

Palermo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Benevento

1.54

Palermo

1.19

Benevento creates 29% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 97 away

1.72

creates per match

1.32

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Palermo

1.32

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Palermo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

71%

Benevento or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

55%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

23%

Palermo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

79%

Benevento 2+ goals

45%

Benevento 3+ goals

20%

Palermo 1+ goals

70%

Palermo 2+ goals

33%

Palermo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

61%

Palermo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Palermo attack 1.32 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Benevento scores more

45%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

29%

Benevento at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

G. Letizia

Benevento · D

7.6

Match Events

33'

Claudio Gomes

50'

Mattia Viviani

54'

M. Brunori↳ C. Gomes

60'

S. Nwankwo← Diego Farias

60'

A. Tello← F. Forte

61'

P. Schiattarella← M. Viviani

66'

K. Kubica← A. La Gumina

68'

72'

73'

78'

81'

I. Marconi← F. Di Mariano

81'

E. Soleri← M. Brunori

84'

C. Pastina← M. Leverbe

88'

Krzysztof Kubica

90+6'

Andrés Tello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoPalermo

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots7

6Corners3

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots7

1On Target3

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

4Inside Box3

8Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

547Total Passes408

464Accurate Passes319

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1