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Palermo vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avellino
Avellino
F. Ranocchia 82'
A. Palumbo 12'
4/5/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Palermo63%
×Draw22%
Avellino14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.80
Avellino
0.71

Palermo creates 154% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.94
Avellino
0.43

allows per match

Palermo
0.99
Avellino
1.66

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more
Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
86%
Palermo or Avellino
78%
Draw or Avellino
37%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
37%
Avellino wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
83%
Palermo 2+ goals
54%
Palermo 3+ goals
27%
Avellino 1+ goals
51%
Avellino 2+ goals
16%
Avellino 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
82%
Avellino (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.66 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Avellino defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Avellino attack 0.43 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Palermo scores more
63%
level
22%
Avellino scores more
14%

Palermo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. RanocchiaPalermoPalermo · M
8.3

Match Events

12'
A. Palumbo↳ J. Le Douaron
33'
A. Le Borgne← L. Palmiero
37'
Niccolò Pierozzi
37'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando IzzoRed card cancelled
45+2'
Lorenco Šimić
46'
E. Gyasi← N. Pierozzi
46'
R. Russo← C. Patierno
46'
P. Enrici← M. Besaggio
57'
A. Gomis← J. Joronen
64'
R. Insigne← T. Biasci
66'
Emmanuel Gyasi
71'
A. Vasic← A. Palumbo
72'
S. Giovane← J. Segre
80'
G. Tutino← D. Sounas
82'
F. Ranocchia↳ J. Pohjanpalo
85'
G. Magnani← M. Bani

Possession

51%Palermo

Shots

10Palermo

Pass accuracy

51%Palermo

Statistics

PalermoAvellino
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots5
0.68Expected Goals (xG)0.11
1Corners0
14Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots5
3On Target1
7Off Target2
0Blocked2
6Inside Box1
4Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
406Total Passes384
317Accurate Passes286
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
-1.08Goals Prevented-1.08
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Palermo vs Avellino

Palermo beat Avellino 2-0 in Serie B on April 5, 2026.

Goals: A. Palumbo (12'), F. Ranocchia (82').

Palermo controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.