Avellino 2–2 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Palermo

M. Palumbo 89'

T. Biasci 39'

J. Pohjanpalo 83' (pen)

F. Ranocchia 69'

12/20/2025

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Avellino41%

×Draw25%

Palermo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.34

Avellino

1.50

Palermo

1.34

Avellino creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

1.45

1.23

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Avellino

1.57

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Avellino

1.23

Palermo

1.43

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.13scores less

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

66%

Avellino or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

59%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

20%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

78%

Avellino 2+ goals

44%

Avellino 3+ goals

19%

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

39%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

55%

Palermo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.57 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Palermo attack 1.45 + Avellino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avellino scores more

41%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

34%

Avellino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

J. Joronen

Palermo · G

8.2

Match Events

18'

Mattia Bani

39'

T. Biasci↳ F. Missori

56'

Luca Palmiero

61'

Lorenco Šimić

66'

E. Gyasi← M. Bani

66'

C. Gomes← J. Segre

69'

F. Ranocchia

73'

C. Patierno← G. Tutino

74'

M. Palumbo← L. Palmiero

75'

Salim Diakité

76'

Martin Palumbo

80'

Joel PohjanpaloPenalty confirmed

82'

Alessandro Fontanarosa

83'

J. PohjanpaloPenalty

85'

F. Lescano← P. Enrici

85'

R. Russo← T. Biasci

85'

S. Giovane← F. Ranocchia

85'

A. Blin← A. Palumbo

87'

Salim Diakité

87'

Salim Diakité

88'

G. Panico← M. Besaggio

88'

D. Veroli← J. Le Douaron

89'

M. Palumbo↳ R. Russo

90+3'

Claudio Gomes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoPalermo

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots14

1.98Expected Goals (xG)2.28

4Corners4

15Fouls22

Shots

12Total Shots14

9On Target3

1Off Target7

2Blocked4

8Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

401Total Passes355

331Accurate Passes290

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls22

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Serie B: Avellino 2–2 Palermo

Avellino and Palermo drew 2-2 in Serie B on December 20, 2025.

Goals: T. Biasci (39'), F. Ranocchia (69'), J. Pohjanpalo (83' pen), M. Palumbo (89').

Avellino controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.

Avellino vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Avellino 2–2 Palermo